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decentralized finance

decentralized finance Fractals & reflexivity generational change microeconomics philosophy

·Feb. 17, 2020

Worldline’s $8B acquisition of Ingenico’s $3B revenue would barely pay for Robinhood or Revolut’s valuations

I look at how spending $8 billion can either buy you $3 billion of revenue from Ingenico, or the private valuation of Robinhood and/or Revolut. Would you rather have a massive cash-flow machine, or a venture bet on a Millennial investing meme? To articulate this question in more detail, we walk through the impact behavioral finance has had on economic rational actor theories, and why quantitative financial modeling often similarly fails to capture the underlying tectonic plates of industry. It may not be wrong to bet on Millennials. We talk about what identity economics (ala identity politics) means for market value and how to think about generational change.

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asset management decentralized finance digital lending music industry p2p & crowdfunding

·Oct. 9, 2020

Why Peer-to-Peer models fail against oligopoly, with Lending Club shutting down p2p platform, Seedrs/Crowdcube merging, and Morgan Stanley buying Eaton Vance for $7B

This week, we look at:

Lending Club, the peer-to-peer lending innovator, turning off peer-to-peer lending after having a bank in its pocket
Consolidation of the UK's largest crowdfunders, CrowdCube and Seedrs, and their limited economics
The scale of the Morgan Stanley and Eaton Vance deal, creating a $1.2 trillion asset manager
The struggle of peer-to-peer models more generally, and whether the blockchain movement can overcome the Prisoner's Dilemma

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decentralized finance NFTs and digital objects visual art

·Sep. 10, 2021

Art Blocks CEO Erick Calderon on Generative Art, Blockchains, and the NFT movement

In this conversation, we chat with Erick Calderon is the founder and CEO at Art Blocks, a platform for creating on-demand, generative art pieces. Since its launch a year ago, Art Blocks has garnered the attention of many, including auction house Sotheby’s, which recently sold 19 of the platform’s pieces in a deal totaling $81,000. Calderon, a native Houstonian, uses the online handle Snowfro, which stems from a snow cone stand he used to own.

More specifically, we touch on projection mapping, generative vs. algorithmic art, machine learning, smart contracts, the constructivist art movement, Artblocks’ unique approach to NFT algorithms and minting, NFT flipping vs. scalping, gas price wars, flashbots, dutch auctions, and the massive demand for anything Artblocks in the world today and the justifcations behind such demand.

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China covid pandemic decentralized finance macroeconomics philosophy

·Aug. 3, 2020

The symbolic battle over TikTok, intellectual property, and blockchain-based finance

This week, we look at:

The 10% collapse in GDP across the US & Eurozone, and how it compares with China's second quarter

The geopolitical battle over TikTok, its alleged spying, and understanding the winners and losers of the Microsoft deal

A framework for how to win in open source competition, explaining both Shenzhen manufacturing success and decentralized finance growth to $4 billion

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artificial intelligence augmented reality Crypto decentralized finance enterprise blockchain Metaverse / xR narrative zeitgeist NFTs and digital objects regulation & compliance venture capital

·Nov. 27, 2020

Jamie Burke of Outlier Ventures on DeFi and NFT investing and acceleration

In this conversation, we talk with Jamie Burke of Outlier Ventures. This is a fascinating and educational conversation that covers frontier technology companies and protocols in blockchain, IoT, and artificial intelligence, and the convergence of these themes in the future. Jamie walks us through the core investment thesis, as well as the commercial model behind shifting from incubation to acceleration of 30+ companies. We pick up on wisdom about marketing timing and fund structure along the way.

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DAOs decentralized finance philosophy venture capital

·Sep. 30, 2019

You don’t get to cheat just because you like to win — on WeWork, Politics, and Fintech

Feelings and emotions at industry events matter. The narrative at the more traditional conferences is that Fintech innovation is just incremental improvement, and that blockchain has struggled to bring production-level quality software and stand up new networks. This isn't strictly true -- see komgo, SIX, or any of the public chains themselves -- but the overall observation does stand. Much of Fintech has been channeled into corporate venture arms, and much of blockchain has been trapped in the proof-of-concept stage, disallowed from causing economic damage to existing business.

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central bank / CBDC Crypto decentralized finance neobank Open Banking regulation & compliance stablecoins

·Jan. 11, 2021

How the OCC is building Crypto America and saving banks from extinction

This week, we look at:

How banks and financial advisors have failed to deliver on $1 trillion in capital appreciation for their clients over the last 12 years
The role of bank regulators in the United States, and the tensions between state and federal agencies
How the OCC is laying the groundwork for national banks to custody crypto assets, bank stablecoin reserves, run blockchain nodes, and use crypto payment networks

And instead of financial advisors or other CFAs guiding the retail market in good decision making, a newsfeed of *what’s popular* has driven Apple, Google, Tesla and the other John Galt hallucinations to the stratosphere. Don’t get us wrong. We love the robot as much as the next Fintech commentator. But it is clear to us that “the masses” are not being “advised”. And that the capital appreciation that matters — cementing the next trillion dollar networks for global future generations in work yet to emerge — is misunderstood and misrepresented by most financial professionals to their clients.

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DAOs decentralized finance Investing IPO / SPAC

·Dec. 15, 2021

The State of Decentralized network M&A in 2021, with Polygon’s $650MM of acquisitions

We look at the state of M&A in decentralized protocols, and the particular challenges and opportunities they present. Our analysis starts with Polygon, which has just spent $400 million on Mir, after committing $250 million to Hermez Network, in order to build out privacy and scalability technology. We then revisit several examples of acquisitions and mergers of various networks and business models, highlighting the strange problems that arise in combining corporations with tokens. We end with a few examples that seem more authentic, highlighting how they echo familiar legal rights, like tag alongs and drag alongs, from corporate law.

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Crypto decentralized finance Investing roboadvisor

·May. 11, 2020

$700B Franklin Templeton buys wealth tech AdvisorEngine, while digital investing DeFi revolution only starting

This week, I pause to reflect on the sales of (1) AdvisorEngine to Franklin Templeton and (2) the technology of Motif Investing to Schwab. Is all enterprise wealth tech destined to be acquired by financial incumbents? Has the roboadvisor innovation vector run dry? Not at all, I think. If anything, we are just getting started. Decentralized finance innovators like Zapper, Balancer, TokenSets, and PieDAO are re-imagining what wealth management looks like on Ethereum infrastructure. Their speed of iteration and deployment is both faster and cheaper, and I am more excited for the future of digital investing than ever before.

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central bank / CBDC Crypto decentralized finance digital securities / STO ICO / IEO stablecoins

·Dec. 23, 2019

Top 5 Decentralized Finance predictions for 2020 and beyond

In the long take this week, I revisit decentralized finance, providing both an overview and 2019 update. The meat of the writing is the following long-range predictions for the space in the next decade -- (1) the role of Fintech champions like Revolut and Robinhood as it relates to DeFi, (2) increasing systemic correlation and self-reference in the space, which requires emerging metrics for risk and transparency, and (3) the potential for national services like Social Security and student lending to run on DeFi infrastucture, (4) the promise of pulling real assets into DeFi smart contracts and earning staking rewards, and (5) continued importance of trying to bridge into Bitcoin. Here's to an outlandish 2020!

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