Technology changes, but consumer needs rarely do. All we want is access to varied, unique inventory and more convenience — commerce technology has evolved to better enable both.
As commerce models change, new payment and financial service modalities arise to accommodate the changing patterns of money movement. To understand what comes next as we stand on the precipice of the AI and agentic commerce era, we can look first to the historical arc of commerce.
The Internet Era: eBay and the Birth of PayPal
In the late 1990s, eBay emerged as a pioneer in connecting buyers and sellers online. eBay’s value proposition was twofold: it provided access to unique inventory (rare collectibles, secondhand goods, etc.) and enabled convenience by connecting buyers and sellers directly.
However, as transactions grew, payments became a critical friction point. Sending checks or money orders was slow and cumbersome, and buyers and sellers lacked trust in each other. Enter PayPal. Originally conceived as a way to beam money using email, PayPal pivoted to become eBay’s de facto payment system, solving the trust and speed problem. This symbiotic relationship between a marketplace and its payment system became the blueprint for future innovations.
The Mobile + Cloud Era: DTC, Marketplaces, and Embedded Finance
The rise of smartphones and cloud computing once again ushered in a new era of commerce. Direct-to-consumer (DTC) brands like Warby Parker and Glossier leveraged social media and e-commerce platforms to offer curated products via direct shipping to consumers. Peer-to-peer marketplaces like Airbnb and Uber unlocked easy access to spare rooms and on-demand rides through mobile apps. Instacart’s convenience made grocery delivery mainstream as well.
These new commerce flows created demand for seamless, embedded payment solutions. With them came new challenges like: how do you accept payments and simultaneously split them to pay out 1099 workers or non-merchant property owners? Square democratized card payments for small businesses. Stripe became the backbone of online payments for startups. Buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) providers like Affirm and Klarna offered flexible payment options for consumers. Even Netflix’s streaming eased consumers into card-on-file payments as subscription pricing for entertainment became the norm.
Payments became invisible, blurring the line between commerce and finance as platforms began to offer not just payment processing but also lending, insurance, and other financial services.
The AI and Agentic Commerce Era: What’s Next?
Commerce is now becoming increasingly agentic, with systems acting on behalf of consumers and businesses. AI will change how commerce models are designed, executed, and monetized to revolutionize both access to inventory and distribution/fulfillment. Here’s how this shift will create new challenges and opportunities:
1. Unlocking Access to Niche Inventory
In the agentic commerce era, AI agents will act as personal shoppers, negotiators, and financial advisors. These agents will have the ability to scour the globe (both physical and digital) for inventory that matches consumers’ exact preferences, budgets, and needs. For example:
- An AI agent could find a rare vintage item listed on a niche marketplace in another country, negotiate the price, and handle the transaction itself.
- AI could enable hyper-personalized product creation, such as on-demand fashion or custom furniture, by analyzing your preferences and collaborating with manufacturers.
- AI could also unlock new digital inventory, like personalized AI-generated content and apps.
This shift will require new payment modalities that are natively integrated with AI systems. For example, AI agents might use dynamic payment routing to split a purchase across multiple payment methods (e.g., credit card, BNPL, and loyalty points) to maximize rewards or cash flow.
2. The Rise of Autonomous Logistics
AI will also make distribution and fulfillment faster, cheaper, and more efficient. For example:
- Autonomous delivery vehicles and drones could enable same-hour delivery, reducing the friction of last-mile logistics.
- AI-powered supply chain optimization could ensure that inventory is always in the right place at the right time, reducing waste and improving availability.
- AI agents could coordinate complex fulfillment workflows, such as bundling orders from multiple retailers into a single delivery or dynamically rerouting shipments based on real-time conditions.
These advancements will make commerce more convenient than ever. An AI agent could notice you’re running low on a household item, order it for you, and arrange for it to be delivered to your doorstep within hours — all without you lifting a finger.
3. Agentic Payments
One possible future is the convergence of Blockchain and decentralized finance (DeFi) technologies and agentic programmable payments that are conditional, automated, and trustless. Smart contracts could facilitate transactions that only settle when certain conditions are met — for example, releasing payment to a seller only after a product is delivered and verified by an AI agent.
This could give rise to decentralized marketplaces where buyers and sellers transact directly without intermediaries or subscription services that automatically adjust pricing based on usage.
4. New Revenue Models and Value Exchange
In the agentic commerce era, value exchange will extend beyond traditional monetary transactions. AI agents might barter, trade, or exchange data or services on your behalf. For example:
- You might allow an AI agent to share your anonymized shopping data in exchange for discounts or exclusive offers.
- AI agents could facilitate peer-to-peer sharing economies, such as renting out your unused items or skills in exchange for credits or tokens.
This could lead to new revenue models, such as data-driven loyalty programs or tokenized rewards systems.
Poised for the Next eBay / PayPal Moment
As AI agents take on a more active role in our economic lives, the lines between commerce, finance, and technology will continue to blur. The companies that succeed in this new era will be those that can anticipate and solve the emerging needs of AI-driven commerce and payment systems.
We’re on the brink of another eBay / PayPal moment — this time, powered by agentic AI.